11 March 2013

The sun's been trying to shine all day here in Koriyama but there's an icy cold wind with the odd flurry of snow. Just like that fateful day two years ago.

We remember those who died in the earthquake and tsunami, over 20,000. In Fukushima prefecture the death toll is just over three thousand. That includes 211 missing and over 1,300 officially recognised  'disaster-related deaths' - suicides, being moved around in the evacuation, stress etc. The families get a one-off payment like the other victims of the disaster and some have won compensation from Tepco though it's often difficult to establish a direct link. The vast majority of these deaths took place in the first few months after the disaster but there were 40 between March and September last year and with the prolonged evacuation the figure continues to rise.

It may be true that no one died as a direct result of the nuclear accident but that doesn't mean there have been no deaths.
 

Like these swans in Inawashiro yesterday battling
against the gale force winds, we don't give up easily ...



... we remember the dead ... 

 

... and look forward to a brighter tomorrow.





Update (3) Peace of Mind

Hi

After that post last night about the plight of the evacuees I felt I needed to get out of town so went skiing to Inawashiro. Conditions were bad, strong winds and driving snow, but the place was full: kids snaking down the mountain in ski schools and snow boarders showing off. I even managed to ease my aching legs in a deep hot spring bath before I left. Perfect. Or so I thought. Got to the station and gales were causing long delays. Had to wait over an hour for the train which then limped to Koriyama. The thirty minute journey took two and a half hours. 

But what of us two years on? Those of us who're not evacuated, not separated from our families, who're just getting on with life here in Fukushima. We've been through a lot and the anniversary brings it all back. I think we've done well. A friend said she thought people outside Fukushima were more worried than we are and I think there's some truth in that. That first summer was awful with the government telling us we were not at risk and the internet full of scare stories but we all in our various ways made an effort to understand radiation, rationalised the information and made our choices. People here are level-headed and just get on with things. 

People who live here never say they're worried (I've noticed that parents don't like to mention 'radiation' in front of the children) but there is a word that crops up all the time in the media. 'Fuan' is the word 不安 and it means 'not at peace', 'worried'. It's not a particularly strong word, it rather denotes a general feeling of unease. The parks have been decontaminated - but just to be on the safe side parents take their children to play in the indoor play centres. All the houses in Kawauchi have been decontaminated and levels are lower than here in Koriyama - but only 40% of residents have returned to live as they're worried about radioactive particles blowing in from neighbouring woods and forests. Consumers use it. They know foods have been tested and are safe - but somehow there's that nagging fear. Machines were introduced, all food is tested but scientific data doesn't seem to be enough. With the drop in population people worry about Fukushima's future. Getting rid of these nagging doubts is going to take a while yet. 

Some very good news just out which will go a long way towards allaying many parents' fears. All those up to the age of 18 are having their thyroids tested but since a survey of this kind has never been carried out before, there was some concern about small cysts that had been discovered in 40% of children. It was not known whether this was normal or not so a control group of over 4,000 children in Aomori, Yamanashi and Nagasaki (three different parts of Japan, all well away from Fukushima) was carried out and the results have just come out. The figures for Fukushima are actually lower than the control group (41.2% as against 56.6%) so parents don't need to worry on this score. Of course children will continue to be monitored. 

It's going to be a long slog but hopefully more news like this will gradually appease people's fears both here and further afield.

Good night 

Anne

Update (2) Evacuees

Hi

For us here in Koriyama, in the middle of Fukushima prefecture, life is pretty much back to normal. But the accident casts a long shadow on many families. There are still 150,000 evacuees. Refugees might be a better word as two years on they're still in limbo. 

First there are the 'voluntary evacuees' (自主避難者 jishu hinansha). They're not from the excluded areas but chose to leave, mainly women and children. Their rent will be paid for one more year but they're not eligible for compensation and are struggling financially and mentally. There are 30,000 of them. That's a lot of people. Some are drifting back but none of the people I know are planning to come back just yet. 

Then there are the people in those awful, cramped, flimsy pre-fabs they call emergency housing. They're designed for two years use but this was extended last year and has just been extended again so people can stay in them for four years. NHK has just carried out a survey (small sample, only 750 people) which showed 63% with Post Traumatic Stress Disorder. As one man joked, he'd be better off in prison: at least he'd get three meals and some work to do!

There's a real sense of frustration. Residents in the areas closest to Fukushima Daiichi have been told they can't return for 5 years at least. But that's all. There had been talk of a 'Grand Design' a vision for the area 30 years hence, but instead of committing to it the government pushes forward plans for nine medium term storage facilities for radioactive waste which, necessary though they are, add to the anxiety people have about their future. Compensation for houses and the land they stand on has been promised (at the rateable value - not bad) and applications can start at the end of this month. But some say they wouldn't get enough to start afresh. Some are even saying they'd rather sell their properties but the government won't commit to nationalisation at this stage. The TV has been full of stories and interviews. Here are a few just to give you an idea.

First, a farmer living in emergency housing who just wants to farm. He wants to be given farmland somewhere else and get on with his life. But the guidelines for compensation for agricultural land haven't yet been drawn up so when is he going to get compensation? And how is he to afford machinery?

A couple in their 50s saved up the money they've been receiving in compensation and have just paid off the mortgage on the house they built 8 years ago. They say they're relieved to get it paid off. Now they'll wait for compensation for their old house and use that to buy a new property. He's set up in business in a small way. He says it seems like the government and Tepco are just waiting for people to give up and set up on their own.

Then the sad case of the man with a young family whose new house and big garden is just outside the 30 km zone. He has a hefty mortgage and two very small children. Not eligible for compensation he's in Tokyo with his family doing casual work and hoping to move back when radiation levels fall.  

There have long been complaints that the recovery is too slow but two years on things seem to be getting more complicated still. New houses will be built this year so hopefully many people will be able to move out of emergency housing, and compensation will be paid for houses and land in the exclusion zones so some people should be able to start afresh. There was a vision for the future in the first months after the accident but it seems to have got bogged down in a very complex and difficult reality. Perhaps it's early days yet. Again, the scale of this accident is mind boggling.

Anne

Update (1) Nuclear

Hi,

Time for my monthly update. Usually I squash too much into one post so I thought this time, with it being a special time, I'd spread it out a bit. Today I'll look at the reactor and tomorrow the evacuees.

This last week or so restrictions on media access to Fukushima Daiichi and the exclusion zone seem to have been eased so we've been treated to shots of well known TV presenters donning white overalls and helmet-cum-gas mask headwear and clambering around Reactor 4. Helicopters are allowed to fly lower so we see lots of before and after pictures and Google has even driven a car round Namie so you'll be able to see the ghost town on Street View this summer.

But back to the reactors. Reactor 1 is covered over with a white roof (levels outside 300 μSv/hr, levels inside: 11 Sv/hr), Reactor 2 is the only one with the building intact (levels inside: 72 Sv/hr), Reactor 3 badly damaged but with the debris being removed (no success yet in measuring levels inside), and at Reactor 4 that unstable roof has been removed and a structure is being built alongside to take the cranes etc. which will remove the spent fuel stored there, work which will start in November. (Radiation in Reactor 4 is not at fatal levels as the reactor was not in operation and contained no fuel at the time of the disaster.)

The three reactors which suffered meltdown continue to be cooled with water which circulates in a self contained system. The trouble is that underground water - from the ground, from rain - leaks through cracks into the floor of all four reactors and has to be removed. At the rate of 400 tons a day. The water is treated: it has the caesium and salt removed, and then it's stored in tanks, solid metal tanks, each containing 1,000 tons of water. At present there is 260,000 tons of water stored on site. Before the disaster the plant was backed by a large wood but the trees have been chopped down to make way for more tanks. A facility (called ALPS) is being built to treat the water further and remove 62 kinds of radioactive material leaving just one. Diluting this and dumping the water in the sea is one solution but it's controversial.

Watching the footage on TV one is struck by how many people, all in their white boiler suits, there are working at the plant. Seems a busy place. The work is ahead of schedule and the plan is to have all the spent fuel assemblies (over 6,000) removed from all four reactors by 2021. Then they will start on the big one: removing the melted fuel from reactors 1 to 3. Next year they are to build a mock up to start practising. 

This new government revoked the earlier government's pledge to fade out nuclear power by 2030. But the new regulatory body is insisting on new safety standards. These will be finalised in July but the electric companies then  have to comply so it may be two years before any return to operation. The other bete noire of the NRA, is reactors built on earthquake faultlines so the one plant currently in operation may have to close.

Meanwhile 90% of Japan's energy comes from fossil fuels, most of it imported LNG. The weak yen is good for exporters but petrol has gone up and electricity prices, which rose in Tokyo last year, are set to rise in the rest of the country, including here, in the summer. 

Yangida Kunio was on TV tonight. He's a non-fiction writer who's specialised in aeroplane accidents and he made the point that the difference between a million to one risk of an aircraft or machine breaking down and a million to one chance of a nuclear accident is in the length of time and cost it takes to remedy, and the wide extent of the damage. At Fukushima communities in a 20 to 30 km radius have lost everything.

Food for thought.

Goodnight

Anne

Poems for the Anniversary

Hi

I have a friend who writes senryu poetry. Like haiku, they're written in 17 syllables, 5,7,5, but whereas haiku are about nature, senryu are about people and are often ironic or satiric. The ones you hear in popular culture come across as funny one-liners but I'm told there's a lot more to the art than that. She's recently published a book and, with her permission, I reproduce here a few that she wrote at the time of the disaster two years ago. Please excuse my rough translations which do no justice to the succinct Japanese verse. I've also added notes to three of them.

夢のよう巨大地震に雪嵐
Yume no yo, kyodai jishin ni yukiarashi
Like a dream, the huge earthquake and then a snowstorm
[I had the same experience. Minutes after the earthquake snow seemed to appear from nowhere. Weird.]

大震災　水が無い飯がない
Daishinsai, mizu ga nai meshi ga nai
Great disaster, no water, no food

三日過ぎ知らされたのは放射能
Mikka sugi, shirasareta no wa hoshano
Three days later and we're told about radiation

大地震　賞味期限が忘れられ
Daijishin, shomi kigen wasurerare
Huge earthquake, best-before dates forgotten

シーベルト肉魚ダメ頭ダメ
Shiiberuto, niku sakana dame, atama dame
Sieverts, fish no good, meat no good, does your head in

お花見も原発騒ぎ　桜散る
O-hanami mo genpatsu sawagi, sakura chiru
Flower viewing time, uproar over the nuclear plant, the cherry blossom falls

避難先福島県に議員来て
Hinansaki Fukushima-ken ni giin kite
To the evacuation centres in Fukushima the politicians come
[I love this one. It's so typical. Even now the politicians come,  stay 10 minutes, have their photo taken and leave. With no real dialogue having taken place, people in temporary housing are left wondering why they bothered to visit.]

フクシマが東北道で捨てられる
Fukushima ga Tohokudo de suterareru
Fukushima abandoned on the Tohoku Expressway
[You can take this any way you like but the writer told me this story. Shortly after the expressway reopened in May 2011, she was shocked to see bins at the service stations full to overflowing with boxes of food and cakes which had been given as presents. People frightened off by the  radiation had abandoned them as they left the prefecture.]

自然界　今日一日許してね
Shizenkai, kyo ichinichi  yurushite ne
Natural world, forgive us, just for today

Poems by Nakamura Yoshiko
中村よし胡

Approaching the Anniversary

Hi

I filed my tax return today. They have a good system here. I went to a big hall filled with computers and numerous tax office staff who come running when you raise your hand with a question. It's all a ploy to get you used to filing online (which I shall do next year) and they are ever so friendly and helpful. 11 March 2011. That's what I was doing - trying to file my tax return. Undeterred, I remember taking a paper version into the tax office on 15 March, the deadline. I remember feeling numb, in shock, as I handed the paper over. The official seemed equally dumbstruck to see me - I didn't know the deadline had been extended. Last year the hall was bedlam as people tried to work out how the disaster had affected their tax position what with buildings destroyed, loss of earnings, grants, compensation etc. This year there were queues but the Japanese are so good at dealing with a lot of people in an orderly way. The proceedings were very well organised, efficient, and polite 

Two years already. The papers and TV carry special features; memorial services are being held, some even within the exclusion zone. The prefecture is holding a service on Monday 11th in Fukushima City and there'll be condolence books to sign and live transmission around the prefecture. I'll be at work on the day but I've been wondering how I should mark the anniversary.

I could go out to Iwaki on Saturday night and watch the sunrise from the beach on Sunday morning. It's an event planned by Shimomura Mitsuko. She's the lady who persuaded the Dalai Lama to come to Koriyama over a year ago. She used to work for Asahi Shimbun and she's a descendant of a Nihonmatsu samurai family.

Or there's a pop concert on Monday 11th at Koriyama Women's College, Fukushima Soul, but applications for the 1,800 free tickets have already closed. Anyway, I'm probably a bit old for that.

There are anti-nuclear demonstrations planned in Fukushima, Tokyo and around the world, and demonstrations calling for the prosecutors to press criminal charges against those responsible for the accident. But I think I'll give those a miss.

I'll probably just take in the candlelight lanterns in the square round the station. They did this last year and it was beautiful. People, young and old, have been decorating the special paper which will be made up into lanterns. They call the event  'Spring Fireflies' after the 'Autumn Fireflies' festival held in September in the village of Ebine not far from Koriyama. They've been making the paper there for centuries out of a local bark. (Incidentally, the village is also known for its freeze dried tofu. It used to look very picturesque with strings of tofu plaited in straw hanging out under the eaves in winter in the freezing cold  - but I don't suppose they're doing that now since the accident. Ebine is also the village where my mother-in-law used to go during the war to barter her kimono for food to feed her large family and staff.)

Those traumatic early days seem a long time ago now and in some ways we don't want to remember but it is a chance to pause and reflect and we'll all be doing that on the day. Wherever we are.
Anne

WHO Report

Hi

On Thursday the WHO issued a report. Full title: Health Risk Assessment from the nuclear accident after the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami based on a preliminary dose estimation. The world's media screams 'Increased risk of Cancer in Fukushima'. Greenpeace accuses the WHO of being in cahoots with  the nuclear industry and says it 'shockingly downplays' the cancer impacts on the population. Whereas Mr Kanno, mayor of Iidate, says the projections are overestimates and not based on reality. He's a quietly spoken, moderate man who has skillfully steered his county through this disaster and when he objects, you sit up and take notice. But hang on a minute, what exactly is being said?

The WHO first assessed the preliminary dose (what we call hibaku 被爆 exposure) and then estimated lifetime doses and increased risk in all solid cancers combined, and also leukaemia, thyroid cancer and female breast cancer. The lifetime risks for both sexes were estimated at three different ages at exposure: 1 year (infant), 10 years (child), and 20 years (adult). Health risks for male emergency workers were estimated for three different ages (20 years, 40 years, and 60 years).

For most of us in Fukushima prefecture the results are reassuring. I quote, 'Outside the geographical areas most affected by radiation, even in locations within Fukushima prefecture, the predicted risks remain low and no observable increases in cancer above natural variation in baseline rates are anticipated.' Also, 'the estimated dose levels in Fukushima prefecture were also too low to affect fetal development or outcome of pregnancy and no increases, as a result of antenatal radiation exposure, in spontaneous abortion, miscarriage, perinatal mortality, congenital defects or cognitive impairment are anticipated'.

However, the report does point to an increase over baseline rates in areas where 'radiation effective doses for the first year ranged from 12 to 25 mSv' - Mr Kanno's county no less. The increases sound scary: around 6% over baseline rates for some cancers and a whopping 70% for thyroid cancer in females exposed as infants. But these are not absolute increases. As the report says, 'For example, the baseline lifetime risk of thyroid cancer for females is just three-quarters of one percent and the additional lifetime risk estimated in this assessment for a female infant exposed in the most affected location is one-half of one percent'. 

What Mr Kanno, the Japanese Ministry of Environment, and people here take issue with is the assumptions used. First, that people stayed in high radiation areas for four months. But people near the reactor were evacuated within days. Iidate county was evacuated in April. Only a handful of people refused to budge. Next, 'that consumers only ate food produced in the area where monitoring was implemented'. This is rubbish. There was a ban on all food in the exclusion zone and a prefecture-wide ban on milk, beef, spinach and other produce. 

The report does say that 'the dose estimates and assumptions used ...were deliberately chosen to minimize the possibility of underestimating eventual health risks' and I suppose it's good to have a few scare stories up your sleeve if you're trying to get people to prepare for the worst. But it doesn't do us any service, as we try and restore confidence in Fukushima.

Another moot point is the report's use of the Linear Model, i.e. that risks increase in direct proportion to the dose. I know this is controversial. You can download a copy of the report from the WHO website:  WHO Report

Already March. We had one warm day which fooled us into thinking spring was on the way but snow in the air again this weekend. My friend in Kitakata has two feet of snow. 

Love to you all

Anne

More Good News

Hi
As we approach the second anniversary there seems to be more and more good news.

First, the news that evacuees should be able to file for compensation for their houses and land at the end of March. There have been so many delays, first it was because local authorities wouldn't release personal details, then it was because there's land that's not registered in the name of the current occupiers (inheritance etc.). This latter problem hasn't been totally resolved and for those concerned will take some time but it's been decided to go ahead with the rest of the applications. Altogether 60,000 households are eligible. It means the evacuees will get their money and can start afresh. Good news for them and good news for the local economy.

In December I talked about the high level IAEA conference held in Koriyama. Well, in yesterday's paper it was announced that the decommissioning of Fukushima Daiichi is to be an international project. This means that Fukushima will get the benefit of international expertise and the experiences of Fukushima will be spread worldwide. Welcome indeed.

A few months ago I lamented the fact that there were so many empty plots in Koriyama. Changing Landscape One photo in that post (top of Sakuradoori) was particularly awful but the plot is to be developed with an upmarket apartment block. No prices yet but the selling point is the view of the park and the fact that it's earthquake-proof. The Japanese word is 免震 menshin. A search tells me that the English technical term is 'base isolation'. The building sits on a rubber base and when there's an earthquake, the whole building moves so you don't get that swaying in the upper storeys that you get when the bottom of the building is fixed (here that form of construction is called 耐震 taishin, 'able to withstand earthquakes'). I know of one building in Koriyama that's menshin. An acquaintance who lived there told me that in the earthquake nothing fell off his shelves. I was amazed as in my apartment the fridge fell over and all my crockery fell out of the cupboards and smashed.

So things are looking up. After a year of chaos, a year of planning, at last things are beginning to happen. Hopefully in the next year we'll get a real sense of a recovery.

It's Sunday afternoon, a typical Koriyama winters day - snow blowing horizontally in the wind. How we long for an end to the snow and the cold. 

Keep warm!

Anne

Seeing is believing

Hi folks,

Chemical smog drifting over from China, a meteorite dropping out of the sky in Russia. Blimey. Maybe it's not so bad here after all. 

First, a bit of good news. An acquaintance of mine I haven't seen for a while surprised me with the news that they've just had a baby. They'd been putting off starting a family since the nuclear accident especially since they live in a part of Koriyama that's had high-ish levels of radiation. But they must have decided that it's safe. I'm very happy for them. Good to know that life goes on, regardless.

I often quote Wade Allison's book Radiation and Reason, the Impact of Science on a Culture of Fear. He believes that strict safety standards paradoxically increase the  fear of radiation and that the only way to reduce fear is through education from the bottom up. Here are two examples of that education in action. First, children in Fukushima are now receiving basic classes in radiation. They get 2-3 hours a year, primary schoolchildren in general studies, and junior high students in science lessons. The lessons started last year and are to be taught in all state schools in the prefecture from the new school year in April. It's not easy getting the right balance between giving them the basic knowledge and making them anxious. I hear that teachers from other areas are coming to observe lessons. It would be great if this could be rolled out across the country. Across the world?

And how about this piece on the local news tonight? Kawamata county which had the ban lifted last year, invited local people to come along and check out the radiation at a dump for the soil that's been collected in decontamination work. A special camera picks up the radiation and shows it in colour on a screen, so you see the view (in black and white) - and coloured areas where there's radiation. This is brilliant. For the invidious thing about radiation is that you can't see it and you can't smell it. It's an invisible enemy and that's what creates the fear. 

The residents were shown the radiation in the dump, spots of red and yellow here and there, then the dump was covered over with thick plastic and no radiation could be seen. Only 10% of inhabitants have returned to live in Kawamata since the ban was lifted last year so it's hoped this PR exercise will convince more of them to go back. The residents who were interviewed seemed impressed. Seeing is believing.
Good night
Anne
P.S. I've added something to the previous post Children if you want to take a look (about thyroids)

Yae no Sakura

Hello everybody,

Every year NHK puts on a historical drama. It lasts a whole year, 50 episodes. Is there any other country that does this? It really is amazing. I got hooked a few years ago. What I've learned is that you have to start with the first episode in January and keep watching (and sometimes watch the repeats). There are so many characters, plots and sub-plots that you get lost if you miss a few episodes. The language isn't easy either but I've found that watching it on digital TV with subtitles is a great help. (Unfortunately they're only in Japanese. Please give us English ones, NHK.) I gather from people who know their history that there's quite a bit of artistic licence but for someone like me it's a great opportunity to learn more about Japanese history.

This year's drama is very special for us in Fukushima. 'The Double Cherry' (八重の桜 Yae no Sakura) , tells the story of Iijima Yae (1845-1932) who at the age of 22, with her hair cut short, dressed as a man and shooting a rifle, helped defend Aizu castle in the Boshin War of 1868. She's been dubbed a samurai Joan of Arc. After the surrender she moved to Kyoto, married Iijima Jo who was fresh back from America, and they set up Doshisha College (now a famous university). After Jo died, she served as a nurse with the Red Cross in the Sino-Japanese and Russo-Japanese wars. Quite a lady. Not only is this a remarkable story of recovery from disaster, but it's hoped it will be a much-needed boost to tourism. Among a myriad initiatives the Chambers of Commerce in Kyoto and Aizu have agreed to a year of exchanges and ANA has covered a jet in  Yae livery!

This is the poster that appears in every shop in this part of the world

We have seen six episodes now so it's time to form an opinion. The series opened, surprisingly, to scenes of the American Civil War. The point being that guns from that war found their way to Japan and into the hands of those trying to overthrow the Tokugawa shogunate and open the country to the outside world. We were introduced to our heroine (a delightful child actor) who was a tomboy and fascinated with guns. (Her family are gunsmiths and her brother has studied the 'Dutch Learning' in Edo, Tokyo.) We are introduced too to the 'Aizu spirit' inculcated in young boys at a special school where they chant a set of rules, the last one being 'naranu koto wa naranu' - that which is wrong is wrong. This school (日新館 Nisshinkan) was rebuilt and opened as a tourist attraction a few years ago but I'm ashamed to say I've never been. An omission I must rectify soon. The first two episodes were a compelling study of what it means to come from Aizu (and by inference Fukushima). Stubborn, proud, extremely loyal. It seems to have gone down well here. I'm also told that the accents are spot on.

Now it's got a bit more complicated. Yae has grown up into an excellent markswoman. But these are turbulent times. Perry's 'black ships' have come to Japan demanding that the shogun end 200 years of isolation and open the country to trade. The country is split between the revolutionaries from Choshu and Tosa in the south who want to give power back to the emperor and open the country, and those loyal to the shogunate. The revolutionaries begin to commit acts of violence and murder in Kyoto and the shogunate organises a kind of secret police to keep order. It's at this difficult time (1862) that the Aizu clan are ordered by the shogun to go to Kyoto, keep order and protect the emperor. Last week's episode showed the daimyo of Aizu, Matsudaira Katamori (the actor bears an uncanny resemblance to the old photo you often see of him) agreeing to the order although he knows that Aizu will get dragged into the war at great cost. An order is an order. Aizu people, you will remember, put duty above all else. 

That's as far as we've got. Still to come is Yae's finest hour, and then the action will move to Kyoto. Yae survives but Aizu is treated extremely harshly by the victorious imperial forces which form the new Meiji Restoration government. Old wounds heal slowly and as recently as 1986 Aizu refused a twinning offer from the city of Hagi in Yamaguchi prefecture (the old Choshu domain). But all is now well. Hagi made generous donations at the time of the disaster -  and much was made of the Mayor of Hagi shaking hands with the Mayor of Aizu.
Anyway, here's a link to a trailer to give you a taste.
Yae no Sakura trailer (Youtube)
My family know not to Skype me until after 9 pm on a Sunday night and it looks as if the same will be true this year too.
Cheers
Anne